Thursday, December 29, 2005

Back to School

I've begun my coursework for my MBA/Technology Management degree. Lots to do. Reading, writing, and socializing with the students.

The main communications mechanism for the University of Phoenix (UOPX) is, surprisingly, NNTP. Yes, old fashioned newsgroups. A brave leap back into the 1980s!

But it works. It's a lowest-common-denominator technology that everyone can take advantage of. It's quick, facile, avoids bogging down in TMT (Too Much Technology), and allows for threaded conversations.

I'm quite glad to read all the biographies of the other students. I was darned happy with my own, and will post it to this Blog in coming days. For now, back to my school work!

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Civilian Deaths at Roadblocks and Checkpoints

I called my Congresswoman's office yesterday to leave a message. I wanted to see if some of my analysis might be of service to her staff. The first idea I got from watching various footage of units on patrol in Iraq (Off to War, Gunner Palace, and various media reports). I didn't note much in the way of standard traffic and roadblock safety management equipment. So I began investigating in November/December to see what our typical protocols were. I'm doing more analysis and would be interested to hear from someone who knows more about it.

From what I am given to understand:
  • US vehicles are marked with "Warning stay back" signs to stay back a certain distance in both Arabic and English.
  • It was said there were TV and radio reminders of what to do at checkpoints.
  • It is well-known that military vehicles have right-of-way.
  • Lead vehicles have sirens installed.
  • There was a "universal audio or visual warning system worked out to give guidance to the civilians.
  • With a reasonable concern for suicide bombers, soldiers preferred to err on the side of caution.
Issues of Iraqi traffic may be exacerbated with the rapid influx of new and used vehicles since the fall of the Ba'athist regime. In May 2004, it was reported "Since last April, over 250,000 cars are estimated as having gone into Iraq from Aqaba. Minivans are particularly popular."

The following is not an exhaustive report, but is simply my attempts to gather information on the types of incidents that occured. Many of these date back to the initial invasion, so it was reasonable to believe that there have since been better traffic management protocols established. However, it was said that there were broaches of the standard protocols that led to the oft-told reported death in 2005 of an Italian intelligence agent that was escorting a recently-ransomed Italian journalist.
Here are some of the reports on the situation in 2005:

Online NewsHour report: Iraqi Checkpoint Security Reevaluated - 7 March 2005
Human Rights Watch: Iraqi: Checkpoints Lack Basuc Safety Measures - 17 June 2005
U.S. Preparing for Iraq Exit

Continuing analysis of Operation Iraqi Freedom based on articles ranging from the
Associated Press, Reuters, the Honolulu Advertizer, the San Jose Mercury News, the New York Sun, Bloomberg, Forbes and the Ukrainian news source Unian.
  • Downshift in Military Presence as Violence Shifts Back to 2nd Gear
  • Christmas
  • The Money's Spent. The Lights are Still Out.
  • From Post-Invastion to Post-Occupation
  • Coalition of the Less-Willing

Monday, December 26, 2005

Thoughts on Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)

The US is already planning on drawing down forces in Iraq from 150,000 before the election to 92,000 - 100,000. I dubbed this tactic "trim-and-mosey" instead of "cut-and-run." This should come as no surprise to people who have been listening to the DoD and White House. It should also not come as a surprise that the Coalition in Iraq dropped from 69 nations to 26, and there will be less by the end of this year

How could the US redeploy from Iraq faster than the present timetable?

It could be done if we turned to Arab and Muslim states to act as peacekeepers. If we had 20,000 - 40,000, US forces could draw down. There would be less incentive to attack US forces if it was seen we were leaving the country, and the Muslim nation coalition would have their "skin in the game" to keep the place in peace.

Here's the Hypothetical Scenario: "Cut-and-Run."

You'll note that the plan actually carries out to 2007, so it's not precisely "cut-and-run." However, it has an aggressive draw-down plan -- taking US forces in Iraq down to 40,000 in 3 months -- and requires a ramp-up plan similar to the UN missions in other nations. Tens of thousands of troops deployed in three months.

Everyone sees that we cannot leave Iraq in the lurch at this point. I took what I think is a unique view to involve and incent all of Iraq's regional neighbors to participate in peacekeeping, and to keep them from turning Iraq into a chessboard for prosecution of clandestine warfare and terrorism against different factions.

How do we get Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and even Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan all pulling for the unity of Iraq? So long as this is seen as a US puppet government, there will be disgruntlement.

Alas, I have a feeling it's not going to happen this way. People want this to be an ugly mess, and so it'll likely to continue with the death of 2-3 US casualties a day, and about 10-20 wounded per day.

A lot of our strategy should depend on what we call victory, and what we call failure. Dean said that the US already lost in Iraq. In a way, he is right, and in a way, those who say we are winning the war in Iraq are correct. It all depends on how "winning" is defined, and thusly, I decided to come up with a rather detailed definition of our "wins" and "losses." I will also state that some of these "wins" and "losses" are only as concrete as the last headline. So there can still be massive shifts.

Have we fully considered What's at Stake? Our budget is heading to a national debt of $10 trillion by 2010. Certainly there was a lot of global goodwill lost.

Since writing these articles, I have noted that the White House is announcing more troop deployments to Iraq cancelled, and also the recall of units from Iraq. We'll see how far and how fast this progresses.
The Iranian Question for 2006 and Beyond

The folks on the forums at Military.com put forward a challenge of a sort when they asked who would join the US in a coalition versus Iran. They also asked whether the US would aid Israel if Israel decided to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities.

First, I want to say that I am not a supporter of the concept of invading Iran. I calculate that regime change, similar to Iraq, would take a force of half-a-million personnel, cost $1 trillion, inflict 4,000 - 8,000 US dead and 30,000 - 50,000 wounded, and may take 3-7 years (which could be quite optimistic estimates).

Sunday, December 25, 2005

Political Thoughts

Zealots on Daily Kos

I wrote an article on zealots in dKosopedia, under their MemeTank. I don't see all believers of any ideology as a zealot. There are many people who are passionate, partisan, but still capable of rationality and even siding against "their cause" because of particular situational realities.

What is alarming in the world is how supposedly-righteous extremism and intolerance is being confused with truth. I felt that the issue of zealotry needed to be addressed.

It is undeniable that the world is in a highly zealotous environment. But it's not just limited to Islamic terrorists. There is domestic terror. There are political zealots jamming the airwaves with spin while swearing they are telling you the "truth."

Moderates are painted as "spineless" and the two extremes are painted as "clueless sheep" or "traitors."

There's a way to break the cycle and move on towards rationalism, but it will require people go, "Ah. Sorry for stepping on toes." It needs to be a permissive opt-in environment based on ethics, rationality and civility.

Taking Up the Cause of Faith with Sam Harris

Sam Harris is a very intelligent, cogent author of a book called "The End of Faith." I heard him speaking on the radio, and was intrigued with his atheist point of view. However, I saw that he was just as much a zealot for his own cause as those he was trying to attack. Why was he proposing faithlessness? Don't we have enough faithlessness in life already? Isn't faithlessness often decried as "treachery?"

I think he has good strong beefs against Bible literalists as well. But at the same time, he was attacking faith with such a wide brush that I felt he spatterdashed all over the qualities of religious faith. So, my own memes compelled me to write. We took a vote, and they said, "Write some essays, Pete!"

Faith, Stupidity and Memeplex Superorganisms
This essay is about how faith can lead to stupidity, but then again, much of human evolution is stupid. I pointed out that faith was actually adaptive, and that it was stupid to argue that faith was not valid. In other words, it was just as stupid to deny faith as it was to follow it blindly.

Psychopathy is Non-Denominational
A lot of atheists seemed to be blaming modern world problems on religious zealotry. I wanted to show that it was not just Muslims or even Christians. Atheists, Nazis, and plenty of non-religious political movements were capable of galling criminality. Pointing out solely religious actors was missing the deeper problems found in just about any organization or individual. Blaming religion for the world's woes is easy, but the problem is far more intractible and subtle.
Why do men like Bin Laden commit their hideous cruelties? The answer is that they “actually believe what they say they believe”. Read Sam Harris and wake up.
I'm not so sure, Sam. Not about why Bin Laden acts the way he does. But that by reading your book people will see things your way or wake up.

Americans tend to roll over and hit the snooze alarm, especially if you are predicting it's cloudy.

While religion is filled with dangers and absurdities, as pointed out in the New York Times Book Review, so are governments, businesses, communities and families. Sam Harris rants about the falsities of religion, but doesn't pause long enough to ask, and honestly answer, "If faith is so bankrupt, why has it endured?"

His very opening of a suicide bombing -- viscious zealotry -- a true concern, can be practiced just as much by those who hate religion or who are inspired by nationalism, racism or other ideologies as by those who are following organized religions. It does not account for non-religious psychopathy on the part of individuals.

He's correct that he says "A belief is a lever that, once pulled, moves almost everything else in a person's life." The analysis needs to be raised to higher level, or he is tossing the baby out with the bathwater. He doesn't like religion, and can point out the terrible excesses of those who have taken the sword up with their Bible or Koran, but he does not address how or why it works for billions of people who never turn into murderers.

He's harping on the notable and horrific exceptions without facing the rule -- that most devout people do not practice murder.
Merry Christmas 2005

It's Christmas Day 2005, and what a year it's been.

For those who do not know me, I am Peter Corless. The "Green Knight" of Green Knight Publishing, which up til recently, was actively producing the Pendragon Online, King Arthur Pendragon roleplaying game, and publishing fiction based in the world of King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table.

I've had a long and distinguished career before that, at Cisco Systems, at a small organization I founded called "Celebrate History," and in many other endeavors stretching back to my stints at Apple Computer, and a small game publisher known as West End Games, Inc., in New York City, where I worked on such games as the Star Wars Roleplaying Game, Star Warriors, Battle For Endor, Paranoia, Junta, Desert Steel, and Imperium Romanum II.

Green Knight Publishing has for now shuttered operations. The site is down, and it's a relief not to have thousands of spam messages of month that cluttered my mind and my inbox. Not that it cannot open up again in 2006 or beyond. But for now, I put it aside to get other aspects of my life back to positive. Mental focus, cash flow, energy, education, and health-wise.

It's Christmas Day

I'll be spending my day with old college friends, their family, and relatives.

My own family has expanded its ranks. I have two new nephews, to join my already wondrous niece. I saw them at Thanksgiving. Simply beautiful. I missed New York City, and I was glad to get back there. To smell the air and feel the bite of the cold that makes you feel fully alive.

Christmas in Northern California is utterly different. There's no chance of snow, except on the peaks of the mountains around the Bay Area. Even if there's a bit of a dusting on the ground, it will never match the snowmen on the lawns and the grinding of laden snowplows and trudging grunt of buses up and down the avenues.

While I can go "visit the snow," and have done so in the past at Yosemite, for this Christmas I'll be sticking around the Peninsula. The San Francisco Peninsula, that is. I saw the Rockaway Peninsula for Thanskgiving.

I wanted to start this blog on Christmas because this is the time of year we celebrate the birth of a new spirit of salvation. In many ways, I have been "reborn" in 2005. Not as a fundamentalist Christian, but as a person.

MBA/Technology Management

The major news for those who may know of me, but I have not spoken to in a long while -- I'll be going back to school for the first time since graduating Carnegie Mellon University in 1986.

As a dedicated participant in the Internet society, I am putting my money where my mouth is, and getting my next degree from the University of Phoenix -- a Masters of Business Administration/Technology Management.

The Professional Choice

In recent weeks, I have also begun consulting again. I have a reasonable chance to have a contract come the start of the year, and the project is exciting. I will not say who with or what specifically I'll be doing, but it is an amazing opportunity. Hopefully by January I'll have a signed contract and I can share more with the world.

Carnegie Mellon was known as "the professional choice." It was a motto that's stuck with me in all the years since my attendance there. In 2005, I decided that the work I had been doing on Green Knight was not going to afford me with the success that I had grown accustomed to in my work for Apple Computer, Inc. (1991-1992), for Cisco Systems, Inc. (1992-2001), and not even with ComputerWare (during the heady days of 1989-1992) or West End Games (1985-1989).

Yes, things look excellent for 2005. This new effort has all the sense and intuitive of success.

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times

I loved my career at Cisco Systems, Inc., but many will remind me that not all was chocolate and roses. In the end I suppose I had just worked myself into a corner there. The projects I had thought were so vital were simply written off, and I was laid off.

My career took a decidedly poor turn after my lay-off in 2001. Though I used 2001-2004 to try to establish Green Knight Publishing, the business did not turn the corner. It had been subsidized by my wealth as a Cisco employee, and my wealth in stocks. When those sources of funding went away, the long-term viability of Green Knight was called directly into question.

I take responsibility for its faltering upon my own shoulders. I had made staffing choices and funding choices, and creative decisions which did not pay off. It was my second business, and I was still learning management methods. It was a vanity press in many ways, but it was such a grand dream I was pursuing. Many people were glad to see it happen, and I am glad to have done what I could when I had the funds to try such an ambitious and yet modest plan. An entertainment company dedicated to the world of King Arthur? Ah, bliss!

So in recent years, I was utterly depressed and devastated by the fiscal downturns I suffered. Who wouldn't be? I had lost my life's fortunes to the proclivities of NASDAQ and the generous yet painful layoff from Cisco. Many talk about what they would do if they had a million dollars. Ask yourself what you would do if you lost a million dollars.

It was painful for me. I thought about what I could do to simply stop spending money. Just stop the bleeding. I cut back the business. I sold my house in Milpitas without ever moving in. I paid whatever the IRS demanded, though I have to thank a very good friend for introducing me to a wonderful tax company in San Jose, and to my ever-faithful business accountant.

Romantically, matters never turned out as I had hoped. I saw forty approach and come, and go, and I was still without a wife. Without my own children. My dreams to one day play Santa Claus in my own house with a chimney would have to wait.

Secret Journey

In 2001-2005, I decided to cut fiscal losses and holed up, a hermit in the modern world. While I made occasional forays beyond my doors, my life was a virtual one.

I spent a lot of time -- I mean a lot of time -- in fantasy worlds. The Skotos, Inc., games Castle Marrach, Mortalis Victus, Lovecraft Country and occasionally their other games.

I played The Sims 2, and SimCity 4, and the online game NationStates. I mastered Stronghold, and Medieval Total War.

Ostensibly, it was all business research. My goal even starting with Skotos was to learn what I needed to successfully launch my own Internet roleplaying game: Pendragon Online.

But that was a cover story after a while. In reality, I was suffering psychological depression, and the games were an avoidance mechanism. My real-life heroic journey was devastated. My business shaken and my wealth shattered. While I still had a rump of my empire left, it was obvious it was far more analogous to Constantinople in 1453 under Constantine XI Paleologus than under Justinian in the 6th Century.

Rehumanize Yourself

I am looking forward to my new educational and economic prospects. I'm looking forward to spending time with my friends on Christmas, and to catch up with friends old and new in the coming year. Tonight I got some old albums from iTunes -- Bob Marley, the Clash, and I listened to some Police albums from around the same time. Since I'll be spending the day of Christmas with college friends, the music reminded me of my college days.

One of the songs was the Police tune "Rehumanize Yourself." And the astute would note my citation of "Secret Journey" above.

I'm eager to greet 2006 as the "good new days," to be just as good as the "good old days." The rough times are past. The future looks bright again. Like George in "It's a Wonderful Life," I'd just like to smile as I found some of Zuzu's petals in my pocket of memories, and leave you with these words:

Merry Christmas, everyone!